2026 draft board

All positions on one list, by value over replacement. Tiers mark where the order stops meaning anything.

weeks 15–17 adjustmentShow

12-team, 1 QB / 2 RB / 2 WR / 1 TE / 1 flex (RB-WR-TE) / 1 K / 1 DST, H2H, playoffs weeks 15-17 · PPR. Order: value over replacement for the starters, then bench value; replacement lines this scoring: QB 248 · K 143 · DST 146 · RB 141 · WR 150 · TE 134 (K and D/ST: a season of streaming). The flex is projected to go to 10 WR, 2 RB. Waiver lines (per game, last five seasons): QB 15.5 · RB 5.6 · WR 8.1 · TE 8.6.

#	Tier	Player	Pos	Team	Proj/G	Total	Basis	VOR	Bench value	Wk 15–17	Why
1	T1	Puka Nacua	WR1	LA	20.7	296	151	+151	152	–
2	T1	Ja'Marr Chase	WR2	CIN	19.5	288	139	+139	139	–
3	T1	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB1	DET	19.1	272	131	+131	132	+1.1	TD-heavy 29%
4	T1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR3	SEA	18.7	277	128	+128	128	–
5	T1	Bijan Robinson	RB2	ATL	18.9	269	127	+127	128	+1.1
6	T1	Christian McCaffrey	RB3	SF	19.3	265	127	+127	129	-2.3	age 30
7	T2	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR4	DET	17.4	258	108	+108	109	–
8	T2	Jeremiyah Love (R)	RB4	ARI	17.4	248	107	+107	112	+1.0	rookie · round 1, pick 3listed RB150% carries vacated
9	T2	De'Von Achane	RB5	MIA	17.3	246	105	+105	107	–
10	T2	Rashee Rice	WR5	KC	17.5	245	102	+102	104	–	TD-heavy 24%injury history · missed 9 and 13 · expect 3.0 out
11	T2	Jonathan Taylor	RB6	IND	17.1	235	96	+96	101	+1.0	TD-heavy 33%
12	T2	Trey McBride	TE1	ARI	15.8	227	94	+94	94	–
13	T2	Drake London	WR6	ATL	16.2	231	86	+86	89	–	TD-heavy 21%
14	T2	James Cook	RB7	BUF	15.4	219	78	+78	83	–	TD-heavy 28%
15	T2	Chase Brown	RB8	CIN	15.3	217	76	+76	82	–
16	T3	CeeDee Lamb	WR7	DAL	15.4	216	73	+73	77	–	injury history · missed 3 and 2 · expect 3.0 out
17	T3	Kyren Williams	RB9	LA	15.0	213	72	+72	78	–	TD-heavy 30%
18	T3	Nico Collins	WR8	HOU	14.9	209	66	+66	70	–	injury history · missed 2 and 5 · expect 3.0 out
19	T3	Omarion Hampton	RB10	LAC	14.8	203	65	+65	73	–
20	T3	Cam Skattebo	RB12	NYG	14.6	200	62	+62	71	–	TD-heavy 33%
21	T3	Ashton Jeanty	RB11	LV	14.3	203	62	+62	70	–
22	T3	Josh Allen	QB1	BUF	21.0	315	60	+60	63	–
23	T3	Malik Nabers	WR10	NYG	14.4	202	59	+59	70	–	projected from rolelisted WR154% targets vacatedhistory 14.1/g
24	T3	Bucky Irving	RB14	TB	14.1	193	54	+54	65	–
25	T3	Javonte Williams	RB13	DAL	13.7	195	54	+54	64	–	TD-heavy 32%
26	T3	George Pickens	WR12	DAL	13.9	198	53	+53	60	–	listed WR2 at week 1
27	T3	Justin Jefferson	WR9	MIN	13.7	202	53	+53	59	–
28	T3	Zay Flowers	WR11	BAL	13.5	200	51	+51	58	–
29	T3	Breece Hall	RB15	NYJ	13.4	190	49	+49	60	–
30	T3	Tetairoa McMillan	WR13	CAR	13.3	197	47	+47	55	–
31	T3	Saquon Barkley	RB16	PHI	13.2	188	47	+47	59	-0.8	age 29
32	T3	A.J. Brown	WR14	NE	13.5	190	46	+46	54	–	age 29new teaminjury history · missed 2 and 4 · expect 3.0 out
33	T3	D'Andre Swift	RB17	CHI	13.2	187	46	+46	58	–
34	T4	George Kittle	TE3	SF	12.6	172	45	+45	49	–	TD-heavy 26%injury history · missed 6 and 2 · expect 3.4 out
35	T4	Derrick Henry	RB18	BAL	13.1	186	45	+45	57	–	age 32TD-heavy 34%
36	T4	Tucker Kraft	TE4	GB	12.3	170	41	+41	46	–	TD-heavy 31%
37	T4	Chris Olave	WR17	NO	12.9	185	40	+40	49	–	rd-1 WR drafted
38	T4	Brock Bowers	TE18	LV	14.1	127	40	+40	44	–	TD-heavy 24%inactive at week 1 · expect 8 out
39	T4	Harold Fannin Jr.	TE2	CLE	12.0	173	39	+39	45	–
40	T4	Carnell Tate (R)	WR15	TEN	12.7	187	38	+38	52	–	rookie · round 1, pick 4listed WR130% targets vacated
41	T4	Quinshon Judkins	RB19	CLE	12.8	175	37	+37	52	+0.8
42	T4	Ladd McConkey	WR16	LAC	12.6	186	37	+37	47	–
43	T4	Brian Thomas Jr.	WR18	JAX	12.7	182	36	+36	46	–
44	T4	Tee Higgins	WR21	CIN	12.8	179	36	+36	46	–	TD-heavy 31%listed WR2 at week 1injury history · missed 2 and 5 · expect 3.0 out
45	T4	Garrett Wilson	WR19	NYJ	12.7	181	35	+35	46	–	TD-heavy 24%rd-1 WR drafted
46	T4	Sam LaPorta	TE6	DET	11.6	162	32	+32	39	–
47	T4	Tyler Warren	TE5	IND	11.4	165	31	+31	38	–
48	T4	Emeka Egbuka	WR20	TB	12.2	180	31	+31	42	–
49	T4	Jaylen Warren	RB20	PIT	12.0	165	27	+27	45	–
50	T4	Jameson Williams	WR22	DET	12.0	171	26	+26	39	-0.4	listed WR2 at week 1
51	T4	Kyle Pitts	TE7	ATL	11.1	160	26	+26	34	–
52	T4	Colston Loveland	TE8	CHI	11.0	159	25	+25	34	–
53	T4	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB21	NE	12.0	161	25	+25	44	-0.7	TD-heavy 30%injury history · missed 3 and 2 · expect 3.5 out
54	T4	Jalen Hurts	QB2	PHI	18.8	272	24	+24	34	–
55	T4	Lamar Jackson	QB3	BAL	18.7	272	24	+24	34	–
56	T4	Kenneth Walker III	RB22	KC	11.8	161	23	+23	42	-1.4	new team
57	T4	J.K. Dobbins	RB24	DEN	11.8	159	22	+22	42	–	injury history · missed 7 and 4 · expect 3.5 out
58	T4	Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR23	ARI	11.7	167	21	+21	35	–
59	T4	Travis Etienne	RB23	NO	11.6	159	20	+20	40	+0.7	TD-heavy 31%new team
60	T4	Rome Odunze	WR24	CHI	11.6	166	20	+20	35	-0.9	TD-heavy 25%
61	T4	Alec Pierce	WR25	IND	11.6	166	20	+20	35	–
62	T4	DK Metcalf	WR26	PIT	11.4	160	17	+17	32	-1.0	age 29TD-heavy 22%injury history · missed 2 and 2 · expect 3.0 out
63	T4	Tony Pollard	RB25	TEN	11.0	157	15	+15	37	-0.7	age 29
64	T4	DeVonta Smith	WR27	PHI	11.2	160	15	+15	31	–	rd-1 WR drafted
65	T4	Terry McLaurin	WR28	WAS	11.2	160	14	+14	30	–	age 31
66	T4	Davante Adams	WR29	LA	11.2	158	14	+14	30	–	age 34TD-heavy 38%listed WR2 at week 1injury history · missed 3 and 3 · expect 3.0 out
67	T4	Quentin Johnston	WR30	LAC	11.2	157	14	+14	30	–	TD-heavy 28%listed WR2 at week 1injury history · missed 3 and 2 · expect 3.0 out
68	T5	Brock Purdy	QB6	SF	18.0	257	13	+13	26	–	injury history · missed 8 and 2 · expect 2.8 out
69	T5	Dallas Goedert	TE9	PHI	10.2	140	12	+12	24	–	TD-heavy 36%injury history · missed 2 and 7 · expect 3.4 out
70	T5	Patrick Mahomes	QB5	KC	17.9	259	12	+12	25	–
71	T5	Christian Watson	WR31	GB	11.0	154	11	+11	28	-1.7	TD-heavy 27%injury history · missed 7 and 2 · expect 3.0 out
72	T5	Bo Nix	QB4	DEN	17.6	265	9	+9	24	–
73	T5	Drake Maye	QB7	NE	17.7	257	9	+9	24	+1.1
74	T5	Jadarian Price (R)	RB26	SEA	10.6	150	9	+9	38	–	rookie · round 1, pick 32listed RB146% carries vacated
75	T5	Jake Ferguson	TE12	DAL	9.8	137	7	+7	21	–	TD-heavy 26%
76	T5	Jaylen Waddle	WR34	DEN	10.6	152	6	+6	25	-0.4	new team
77	T5	Juwan Johnson	TE10	NO	9.7	139	5	+5	19	–
78	T5	Travis Kelce	TE11	KC	9.7	139	5	+5	19	–
79	T5	Dalton Kincaid	TE14	BUF	9.7	132	4	+4	18	–	TD-heavy 24%injury history · missed 5 and 4 · expect 3.4 out
80	T5	Courtland Sutton	WR32	DEN	10.4	154	4	+4	24	-0.4	age 31listed WR2 at week 1
81	T5	Wan'Dale Robinson	WR33	TEN	10.3	153	3	+3	23	–	rd-1 WR draftedlisted WR2 at week 1new team
82	T5	Jordan Addison	WR36	MIN	10.4	146	3	+3	23	–	listed WR2 at week 1injury history · missed 3 and 2 · expect 3.0 out
83	T5	Jaxson Dart	QB12	NYG	17.2	249	2	+2	19	–
84	T5	Cade Otton	TE16	TB	9.4	131	2	+2	17	–
85	T5	Brenton Strange	TE17	JAX	9.4	131	1	+1	16	–
86	T5	Caleb Williams	QB8	CHI	17.1	256	1	+1	18	-1.0
87	T5	Justin Herbert	QB9	LAC	17.0	256	0	+0	18	–
Below the replacement line: ordered by bench value (upside, handcuffs, fill-in), not VOR
88	T5	RJ Harvey	RB27	DEN	9.9	141	27	0	27	–	TD-heavy 35%listed RB2 at week 1listed behind J.K. Dobbins (RB24, outside the top 12 the handcuff study covered: no bump)
89	T5	Chuba Hubbard	RB28	CAR	10.1	136	27	-1	27	-0.6	injury history · missed 2 and 2 · expect 3.5 out
90	T5	Aaron Jones	RB29	MIN	9.9	135	26	-3	26	+0.6	age 32
91	T5	Jayden Reed	WR40	GB	9.9	141	26	-4	26	-1.5	projected from rolelisted WR238% targets vacatedhistory 10.2/g
92	T5	Rico Dowdle	RB30	PIT	9.5	135	24	-7	24	–	listed RB2 at week 1new teamlisted behind Jaylen Warren (RB20, outside the top 12 the handcuff study covered: no bump)
93	T5	TreVeyon Henderson	RB43	NE	10.8	97	23	-15	23	-0.6	TD-heavy 29%listed RB2 at week 1inactive at week 1 · expect 8 outlisted behind Rhamondre Stevenson (RB21, outside the top 12 the handcuff study covered: no bump)
94	T5	David Montgomery	RB32	HOU	9.3	128	23	-10	23	-0.6	age 29TD-heavy 32%new team
95	T5	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB31	WAS	9.1	129	22	-12	22	-0.5	TD-heavy 34%
96	T5	Kenny Gainwell	RB33	TB	9.0	127	21	-14	21	–	listed RB2 at week 1new teamlisted behind Bucky Irving (RB14, outside the top 12 the handcuff study covered: no bump)
97	T5	Michael Wilson	WR35	ARI	10.1	150	21	0	21	–	listed WR2 at week 1
98	T5	Najee Harris	RB49	NYG	9.2	82	21	-30	21	–	projected from rolelisted RB2history 9.0/glisted behind Cam Skattebo (cheap handcuff: no bump)
99	T5	Kyle Monangai	RB34	CHI	8.7	124	20	-17	20	–	listed RB2 at week 1listed behind D'Andre Swift (cheap handcuff: no bump)
100	T5	James Conner	RB57	ARI	9.1	73	19	-33	19	+0.5	projected from rolelisted RB450% carries vacatedhistory 12.5/g
101	T5	Tyjae Spears	RB36	TEN	8.7	118	19	-19	19	-0.5	listed RB2 at week 1injury history · missed 4 and 5 · expect 3.5 outlisted behind Tony Pollard (cheap handcuff: no bump)
102	T5	DJ Moore	WR37	BUF	9.8	146	19	-4	19	–	age 29TD-heavy 28%new team
103	T5	Mike Evans	WR42	SF	9.9	140	19	-4	19	–	age 33TD-heavy 21%new teaminjury history · missed 9 and 3 · expect 3.0 out
104	T5	Jordyn Tyson (R)	WR75	NO	10.9	87	19	-8	19	–	rookie · round 1, pick 8listed WR5
105	T5	Woody Marks	RB35	HOU	8.5	121	19	-20	19	-0.5	listed RB2 at week 1listed behind David Montgomery (RB32, outside the top 12 the handcuff study covered: no bump)
106	T5	Khalil Shakir	WR41	BUF	9.8	141	19	-5	19	–	listed WR2 at week 1
107	T5	Parker Washington	WR38	JAX	9.7	144	19	-6	19	–	listed WR2 at week 1
108	T5	Josh Jacobs	RB51	GB	9.9	79	18	-27	18	+0.6	TD-heavy 35%listed RB4 at week 1reserve at week 1 · expect 9 out
109	T5	Chris Godwin Jr.	WR43	TB	9.8	138	18	-5	18	–	age 30listed WR2 at week 1injury history · missed 8 and 10 · expect 3.0 out
110	T5	Tre Tucker	WR39	LV	9.7	144	18	-6	18	–
111	T5	Trevor Lawrence	QB13	JAX	17.1	248	18	0	18	+1.0
112	T5	Makai Lemon (R)	WR49	PHI	8.8	131	18	-19	18	–	rookie · round 1, pick 20listed WR337% targets vacated
113	T5	Joe Burrow	QB14	CIN	17.1	247	17	-0	17	-1.0
114	T5	Jared Goff	QB10	DET	16.9	253	17	-2	17	–
115	T5	Baker Mayfield	QB11	TB	16.9	253	17	-3	17	-1.0
116	T5	Stefon Diggs	WR44	WAS	9.4	135	16	-10	16	–	age 33listed WR2 at week 1new team
117	T5	Dalton Schultz	TE13	HOU	9.3	134	16	0	16	–
118	T5	Xavier Worthy	WR45	KC	9.4	135	16	-11	16	-0.5	listed WR2 at week 1
119	T5	Brian Robinson	RB44	ATL	6.9	95	16	-43	16	+0.4	projected from rolelisted RB235% carries vacatedhistory 6.3/glisted behind Bijan Robinson (cheap handcuff: no bump)
120	T5	Josh Downs	WR46	IND	9.3	132	15	-13	15	–	listed WR2 at week 1
121	T5	Jakobi Meyers	WR47	JAX	9.2	132	15	-14	15	–	age 30listed WR3 at week 1
122	T5	Dak Prescott	QB16	DAL	16.6	242	15	-6	15	+1.0	age 33
123	T5	Hunter Henry	TE15	NE	9.1	132	15	-3	15	–
124	T5	KC Concepcion (R)	WR54	CLE	8.4	124	14	-26	14	–	rookie · round 1, pick 24listed WR230% targets vacated
125	T5	Jonathon Brooks	RB45	CAR	6.6	94	14	-47	14	-0.4	projected from rolelisted RB253% carries vacatedhistory 3.3/glisted behind Chuba Hubbard (cheap handcuff: no bump)
126	T5	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB37	NYG	7.7	105	14	-33	14	–	listed RB3 at week 1
127	T5	Jayden Daniels	QB18	WAS	15.4	223	14	-24	14	-0.9	projected from rolelisted QB1history 17.0/g
128	T5	Dylan Sampson	RB39	CLE	7.5	103	13	-35	13	+0.5	listed RB2 at week 1listed behind Quinshon Judkins (cheap handcuff: no bump)
129	T5	Alvin Kamara	RB56	NO	8.2	73	13	-39	13	+0.5	age 31listed RB2 at week 1inactive at week 1 · expect 8 outinjury history · missed 6 and 3 · expect 8.0 outlisted behind Travis Etienne (RB23, outside the top 12 the handcuff study covered: no bump)
130	T5	Michael Pittman	WR48	PIT	8.8	131	13	-19	13	-0.8	age 29TD-heavy 21%listed WR2 at week 1new team
131	T5	Luther Burden III	WR50	CHI	8.9	127	13	-18	13	-0.7	listed WR2 at week 1
132	T5	Rachaad White	RB38	WAS	7.3	104	13	-37	13	-0.4	listed RB2 at week 1new teamlisted behind Jacory Croskey-Merritt (cheap handcuff: no bump)
133	T5	Kyler Murray	QB20	MIN	15.1	219	12	-29	12	+1.8	projected from rolelisted QB1history 15.3/g
134	T5	Braelon Allen	RB47	NYJ	6.3	87	12	-52	12	–	projected from rolelisted RB2history 4.4/glisted behind Breece Hall (cheap handcuff: no bump)
135	T5	Rashid Shaheed	WR51	SEA	8.8	126	12	-19	12	–	listed WR2 at week 1
136	T5	Romeo Doubs	WR53	NE	8.7	125	12	-21	12	-0.6	TD-heavy 22%listed WR2 at week 1new team
137	T5	Matthew Stafford	QB15	LA	16.1	242	12	-14	12	+1.0	age 38rd-1 QB drafted
138	T5	Jauan Jennings	WR55	MIN	8.7	123	11	-21	11	–	age 29TD-heavy 31%listed WR3 at week 1new teaminjury history · missed 2 and 2 · expect 3.0 out
139	T5	Omar Cooper Jr. (R)	WR58	NYJ	7.8	115	11	-34	11	–	rookie · round 1, pick 30listed WR3
140	T5	Tank Bigsby	RB48	PHI	6.1	86	11	-55	11	-0.4	projected from rolelisted RB2history 4.7/glisted behind Saquon Barkley (cheap handcuff: no bump)
141	T5	Mason Taylor	TE30	NYJ	7.3	101	11	-29	11	–	projected from rolelisted TE1history 6.1/g
142	T5	Bhayshul Tuten	RB41	JAX	7.2	98	11	-40	11	+0.9	TD-heavy 47%
143	T5	Jordan Mason	RB42	MIN	7.1	98	11	-41	11	+0.4	TD-heavy 28%listed RB2 at week 1listed behind Aaron Jones (cheap handcuff: no bump)
144	T5	Blake Corum	RB40	LA	7.0	100	11	-41	11	–	TD-heavy 29%listed RB2 at week 1listed behind Kyren Williams (cheap handcuff: no bump)
145	T5	De'Zhaun Stribling (R)	WR59	SF	7.6	113	11	-37	11	–	rookie · round 2, pick 33listed WR330% targets vacated
146	T5	Calvin Ridley	WR65	TEN	7.1	101	11	-45	11	–	projected from rolelisted WR330% targets vacatedhistory 9.2/g
147	T5	Jordan Love	QB17	GB	16.0	229	11	-15	11	-1.0	injury history · missed 2 and 2 · expect 2.8 out
148	T5	Jerry Jeudy	WR52	CLE	8.5	125	10	-24	10	–	rd-1 WR drafted
149	T5	Pat Freiermuth	TE19	PIT	8.5	123	10	-11	10	–
150	T5	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR56	SF	8.5	122	10	-24	10	–	age 30listed WR2 at week 1new team

How this is built. Projections come from the site's model (see the rankings page). Defences are last season shrunk two-thirds of the way to average - a season model with sacks, takeaways, returning snaps, coaching and schedule did no better (0.26 vs 0.27 rank correlation), so the order inside the defence block is weak too; weekly streaming by matchup scored 2 points a week more than holding the preseason DST1 in 2015-2025. Kickers are a three-season blend shrunk 60% to average plus a small dome bonus - and even that only reaches a 0.18 rank correlation with the next season, so treat the order inside the kicker block as weak: kickers are close to unpredictable, and in-season, streaming by form matched holding K1. VOR subtracts what the best undrafted starter at the position projects to score in this league shape. Tiers group players whose value is within half the position's backtested spread — inside a tier the order is not meaningful. The weeks 15–17 column is a small, separable nudge for the single-elimination playoff weeks: December cold for kickers and non-elite receivers, and opponents for backs and streaming-tier quarterbacks - off by default, because a simulation of 2015-2025 drafts found it changed neither playoff nor title rates. Consistency is not a factor anywhere on this board because the data says it is not a repeatable trait.

How the order is chosen. Players above the replacement line are ordered by VOR; below it, by bench value - the Basis column is whichever applies, and the divider rows mark the switches. A single value built on the model's actual error distribution was tested as one sort key and did not beat this. That split is not taste: a simulation of 2015-2025 drafts on actual weekly points (every team drafting from these projections, one seat per strategy, twelve draft slots, hundreds of schedules) found that ordering the starters by Value instead of VOR cost playoff appearances in 2021-2025, while Value on the bench picks kept its title edge - the hybrid made the playoffs 58% of the time in a mixed room against 50% for plain VOR and 35% for drafting by projected points, and won the title 12.7% of the time against 8.3% for an average team. Kickers and defences sit as a block at the last-two-rounds mark (pick 157): the same simulation found that taking them where their VOR falls (a K1 around pick 45) cost 2-8 points of playoff rate. Quarterbacks: a QB in round 1 cost 8-12 points of playoff rate; waiting until round 8 cost nothing - the board's timing (first QB in round 2) tested the same as waiting. Value is the expected realised value over replacement for everyone: a starter's VOR, plus the chance-weighted upside above the starter line given the position's backtested error band (this is all a bench player has). Because the league allows trades, that upside counts whether or not you have a slot for him - at 85 cents on the dollar, since roughly half of it would need a trade to realise. A depth-chart RB2 adds a handcuff term only if he was a proven producer himself (8+ pts/g last season): 26% chance the starter misses four-plus games, six games, 2.6 pts/g over a typical pickup - that is what proven backups measured in 2013-2025, while cheap handcuffs scored 5.7 in the starter's absence and lost to the wire, so they get nothing. Every bench-grade player adds a little coverage: expected fill-in starts (byes plus starters' missed games, at most four) times his edge over the waiver line - the wire, not the draft pool - weighted by the chance he is bench-grade at all. The top of the board is unchanged; below the starter line the list now prefers running-back depth and high-variance youth over low-ceiling veterans and second quarterbacks. Kickers and defences are only ever starters.